UFC Vegas 41: Costa vs Vettori (Reposted)

What was supposed to be a main event at middleweight has been moved to 205 pounds here in Vegas! We have a stacked card of fights today headlined of course by Marvin Vettori taking on the overweight Paulo Costa.

The write-up here will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It details our betting strategy for each fight and a prediction of what kind of bout we see.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

Lastly, if you are in search of even more DFS content be sure to visit DailyPlayAction.com! This site is dedicated to providing expert daily fantasy coaching as well as tools to optimize your NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL and PGA lineups. Check them out now if you play any FanDuel or DraftKings DFS.

Current Record

  • Anthony: 232-164-4 (Last Year 223-145-6)
  • Nick: 237-159-4 (Last Year 235-133-6)
  • GB: 225-171-4 (Last Year 216-152-6)

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 9:00 AM EST 10-23-2021

Preliminary Card- Starts 1:00pm EST

Zviad Lazishvili -115 (DK $8500, FD $17) vs Jonathan Martinez -105 (DK $7700, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Our card opens with a bantamweight fight between Zviad Lazishvili and Jonathan Martinez. This is the UFC debut for Lazishvili who steps in as a short notice replacement. He is undefeated at 12-0 and the current LFA bantamweight champion. Lazishvili is certainly talented, but his record is extremely deceiving. His first ten wins all came against opponents that were making their professional debuts. Martinez also has a record that cannot be taken at face value. His first career defeat came after landing an illegal knee on Matt Schnell while he has also dropped a terrible split decision to Andre Ewell. Martinez is the more dynamic, precise striker and I think he can do well counterstriking Lazishvili in this bout. I am not one to fade Georgian wrestlers like this but I think we need to see a lot more from Lazishvili before he is justifiably a favorite or at near even odds. The more experienced Martinez should gain traction the later this fight goes as long as he can stuff a few takedowns. The weight cut seemed to go smoothly and he has shown excellent staying power in the past. Jonathan Martinez by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Martinez is well rounded but mostly excels on the feet. He has outstanding power with advanced footwork and head-movement. He throws meaningful strikes and does an excellent job mixing power into his combinations. Martinez is excellent at striking out of breaks and he’s shown sneaky power for this weight class. Zviad Lazishvili will be taking this fight on short notice. He finds most of his success grappling for submissions and he enters the UFC as the current LFA bantamweight champion. Martinez sports a shaky 58 percent takedown defense, but he’s never been submitted professionally. He has never really faced an opponent with Lazishvili’s advanced BJJ, which makes this such an intriguing bout and a tough one to call. This is a low confidence pick, but I expect Martinez’s grappling will be enough for him to keep this mostly on the feet. Lazishvili is a dangerous grappler, but everywhere else Martinez should have a clear advantage. Jonathan Martinez by Decision
  • GB: Zviad Lazishvili by Round Three Submission

Livinha Souza -120 (DK $8300, FD $16) vs Randa Markos +100 (DK $7900, FD $14)

  • Anthony: This women’s strawweight bout is as low level as it gets as Randa Markos takes on Livinha Souza. Markos lost her most recent fight due to an illegal upkick, but enters here on a four fight skid. She is a loser in five of her last six and now has an embarrassing professional record of 10-11-1. Souza has the cleaner record but really has fallen flat thus far in the UFC. She could be well on her way to irrelevancy just like her opponent here today. Markos probably only wins this bout if it is a boring shadow boxing match so I will take Souza given the additional routes to victory she has. No matter how attractive the dog price on Markos seems, I am not going to bet a dime on someone with a losing record. In fact, I won’t be betting this fight at all. Livinha Souza by Decision
  • Nick: We have what should be a closely contested matchup here at strawweight. Markos is coming off four consecutive losses, but she had faced some very talented opponents. Despite her recent struggles, there’s really no denying the quality of some of the wins on resume. She’s well-rounded but most of her success comes on the feet. Livinha Souza is coming off an ugly KO loss to Amanda Lemos. She was completely overwhelmed in that spot. She has a powerful judo base that she can use to outmuscle smaller opponents, but she seems hesitant to engage in grappling exchanges in many of her recent matchups. Markos is going to have an advantage when it comes to volume here, but I expect Souza to throw the more damaging strikes. Additionally, Markos carries an ugly 52 percent takedown defense. Souza should be able to ground this fight if she needs to. This is not a confident lean and I could see this one going either way. However, I’ll side with the strength and more dangerous striking of Souza. Livinha Souza by Decision
  • GB: Randa Markos by Decision

Jeff Molina -165 (DK $8700, FD $18) vs Daniel Da Silva +135 (DK $7500, FD $12)

  • Anthony: This should be an awesome bout at flyweight between Jeff Molina and Daniel Da Silva. It is the UFC debut for Da Silva who has accrued an impressive 11-1 record on the Brazilian regional scene. All but one of his fights have ended inside of the first round, so Molina will need to be cautious in this one. He struggled out of the gate against Aoriqileng in his last bout but ended up coming alive late, landing 127 significant strikes in the third and final round. Molina is a high-pressure fighter that adapts well and can follow the gameplan laid out here by head coach James Krause. His eight consecutive wins are impressive and surely Molina leveled up his training with the $50,000 bonus he earned back in April. He proved in that bout that he is a true fighter and I will be backing him again here in what is honestly an easier matchup. The high volume makes him an attractive DFS play and I see Molina really taking over in the latter rounds of this one. He topped 130 points on DraftKings in that previous win. Jeff Molina by Decision
  • Nick: Molina is an effective striker that does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He pushes a serious pace and overwhelms his opponents with volume. He’s most comfortable on the feet, but his grappling is advanced enough that he can hang with a wide range of opponents. Molina is another fighter that trains under James Krause. He’s likely going to come into this match-up with an excellent game plan and I fully expect him to weaponize his cardio. Da Silva comes in with an impressive 11-1 record, but he really hasn’t been tested against a high level of competition. He seems to have decent BJJ and his boxing is mostly crisp, but it’s impossible to what level he’s on until we see him against an opponent like Molina. It seems he has a fairly easy time switching stances. He is aggressive and mixes his kicks in well, but he often overexerts himself and it seems he has questionable takedown defense. Since there are a lot of question marks around this fight, I don’t want to overinvest. Still, I expect Molina to be the better fighter here. He should be able to match Da Silva on the feet and I feel Krause will be able to coach him to a wrestling heavy victory if needed. Jeff Molina by Decision
  • GB: Jeff Molina by Round Two KO

Jai Herbert -190 (DK $8800, FD $18) vs Khama Worthy +155 (DK $7400, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Next up is a bout at lightweight between Khama Worthy and Jai Herbert. These fighters are both winless in their previous two scraps and may just be fighting for their spot on the roster here. Jai Herbert is the former Cage Warriors lightweight champion but since joining the UFC we have only seen him get finished. He had his moments early against Francisco Trinaldo but ultimately got slept by a single punch at the start of round number three. His chin is however far more reliable than that of Worthy who has been knocked out in seven of his eight pro losses. Worthy is the better grappler, but I do not trust him to survive long in what is likely a stand-up battle here. Herbert’s greatest strength is his striking as he had four straight wins by knockout before getting the UFC call last July. There is solid value on him here as it is likely he puts a chinny Worthy to sleep. Jai Herbert by Round One KO
  • Nick: Herbert isa former Cage Warriors champion with decent BJJ, but his most recent wins have come via strikes on the feet. He’s best in the clinch with a strong Muay-Thai base, but he’s fairly competent no matter where a fight takes him. He’s coming off an ugly loss to Renato Moicano, but Moicano leaned on his grappling in that spot and many consider him to be a top-10 fighter at lightweight. Khama Worthy is coming off a brutal KO loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He’s been knocked out in back-to-back fights and there are certainly considerable questions surrounding his durability coming into this fight. He carries knockout power of his own, but he telegraphs many of his strikes. His defensive ability is questionable and while he’s decent on the mat, he’s also fairly easy to take down. Worthy will be live for the KO upset early here, but I expect Herbert’s technical prowess to shine over the course of three rounds. This matchup has Fight of the Night potential, but Herbert is the rightful favorite. Jai Herbert by Round Two KO
  • GB: Jai Herbert by Decision

Laureano Staropoli -210 (DK $9000, FD $20) vs Jamie Pickett +170 (DK $7200, FD $19)

  • Anthony: This will be a middleweight contest between Laureano Staropoli and Jamie Pickett. If you haven’t realized by now, the start of this card is loaded with rather unimpressive fighters. Staropoli enters here having lost three straight decisions while Pickett is winless in his only two UFC fights. Pickett is definitely the more dynamic and intimidating of these two but by no means the better fighter. Staropoli has demonstrated very good technique on the feet but as of late opponents have been neutralizing him on the mat. Pickett is not one to ever really shoot for takedowns so Staropoli will be the one dictating where this fight takes place. I am siding with the Argentinian for those reasons but as stated, neither one of these fighters are all that great. Do not overinvest in either side here as these guys should not be trusted. Laureano Staropoli by Decision
  • Nick: This should be a fun fihgt for however long it lasts. Both guys like to stand and trade, so it’s likely that the majority of this fight takes place on the feet. They are each coming off consecutive losses so there’s a decent chance that the loser is released from the roster. Pickett will have a decent reach advantage here, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He absorbs more than five strikes per minute. Staropoli is a decent volume striker, but he tends to wait for fights to come to him. He struggles to build momentum and while he does carry power, he has trouble landing in as he’s often on the defensive. Staropoli usually takes less damage and he’s going to put out more volume here. The line is too wide, but I like that Pickett is likely to present opportunities for Staropoli to counter. Neither of these guys seem to be very high level, but I expect Staropoli to get it done. Laureano Staropoli by Round Two KO
  • GB: Laureano Staropoli by Decision

Tabatha Ricci -260 (DK $8900, FD $20) vs Maria Oliveira +210 (DK $7300, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Here we have a women’s strawweight bout between Tabatha Ricci and Maria Oliveira. This is the UFC debut for Oliveira and just the second fight for Ricci in the promotion. We saw Ricci really struggle at flyweight against Manon Fiorot in June, but that is to be expected up weight against a ranked contender. She was undefeated prior to that bout with impressive finishes under the LFA banner. Ricci is a judo black belt, a black belt in BJJ and a national Muay Thai champion. While her opponent here is experienced and dangerous while standing, her wins have all come over suspect competition. I do not see Oliveira holding her own on the ground if Ricci is successful taking this fight to the mat. There is a size difference listed on paper but these two appeared to be similar heights during faceoffs. I think Ricci uses her grappling heavy attack to get the win by stoppage here. Tabatha Ricci by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Ricci seems to have impressive offensive grappling ability, but we really haven’t seen her tested against a high level of competition. She was steamrolled in her UFC debut against Manon Fiorot, but it’s tough to get down on her for that performance as Fiorot is one of the more promising prospects at flyweight. Maria Oliveira will be making her UFC debut here. She finds most of her success striking at range. She struggles when matched up against top level competition, but since she’s still early in her career we can expect she’s been making improvements. It’s tough to put much confidence in either of these fighters, as we really haven’t seen them tested extensively at a high level. Things will be competitive on the feet, but Ricci’s grappling advantage should be the difference in this spot. I expect Ricci may struggle early, but she should eventually close the distance on Oliveira and take this fight to the mat. Tabatha Ricci by Round Three Submission
  • GB: Tabitha Ricci by Round One Submission

Mason Jones -425 (DK $9500, FD $23) vs David Onama +315 (DK $6700, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Next we have a lightweight bout between Mason Jones and David Onama. This will be the UFC debut for Onama as he steps in on short notice for Jones’ original opponent Alan Patrick. As indicated by the odds a lot of people are high on Jones, and for good reason. The Welsh fighter should really be undefeated as his only loss was a split decision to Mike Davis that I thought he quite clearly won. That performance was awarded Fight of the Night. His most recent bout was ruled a no contest after an accidental eye poke, but for the seven minutes prior he had been absolutely mauling Alan Patrick. If they were to have that rematch I’m sure Jones would find the finish. He has very crisp boxing and powerful hands. In this matchup he will have a massive advantage in terms of technical striking. Onama is tough and has won every professional fight by finish, but I believe Jones is just levels above him. Jones also has experience as heavy as 170 pounds while Onama has primarily fought at featherweight. I seem him imposing his will early here. Mason Jones by Round One KO
  • Nick: Mason Jones is one of the highest regarded prospects in this division. He carries a blackbelt in BJJ, Judo and kickboxing. He’s a very well-rounded fighter with no singular standout skill but he’s shown finishing ability against a decent level of regional competition. Jones is the former lightweight and welterweight Cage Warriors champion. He sometimes leaves himself open to counter-shots as his aggressive style isn’t matched by technical prowess, but he is advanced enough as a boxer to hang with a good chunk of this division. He also recently changed camps to Team Alpha Male. This should benefit him here as he’s likely to have better training partners and coaches around him than he did when he lived in Wales. David Onama is another Glory MMA fighter, but he’s taking this fight on short notice. I expect Onama could hang on the roster, but this feels like far too much too soon. Jones should be able to outclass Onama no matter where this one goes. Mason Jones by Round One KO
  • GB: Mason Jones by Round Three KO

Gregory Rodrigues -140 (DK $8000, FD $16) vs Jun Yong Park +115 (DK $8200, FD $16)

  • Anthony: The featured prelim is a bout at middleweight between Jun Yong Park and Gregory Rodrigues. I have cashed a nice underdog ticket on Rodrigues in his past two bouts, so I am tempted to ride him here. He is 6’3 and build like a monster for this weight class. That size should help him neutralize the wrestling heavy style of his opponent Park. Rodrigues was successful in stuffing all four of Dusko Todorovic’s takedowns in his UFC debut this June. He even landed three takedowns of his own in that fight, showing off his impressive top game too. With Park averaging a takedown per round in the UFC his gameplan is clear and I see Rodrigues successfully stuffing any of those shots today. He has powerful hands to hurt Park while there is very little threat offensively coming back at him. Park is much more a lay and pray fighter than one that finishes opponents inside of the distance. Rodrigues threatens with powerful hands and excellent jiu jitsu, making this a difficult puzzle for Jun Yong Park to solve. Park is durable but I still see Rodgrigues overpowering him on the feet. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Jun Yong Park is coming off an impressive win over Tafon Nchukwi. He leaned on his grappling in that spot to tire Nchukwi. He showed an extremely high Fight IQ and he seems to continue to improve every time we see him fight. Gregory Rodrigues is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut over Dusko Todorovic. He showed impressive explosiveness and athleticism in that fight, with decent striking and scrambling ability. Park would be wise to try to take Rodrigues down here. He’s never been KO’d, but Rodrigues’ clearest path to victory certainly comes on the feet. Rodrigues is extremely strong and won’t be easy to take down, but I expect Park to find his openings eventually. This should be a fun match-up and it wouldn’t shock me to see Rodrigues pull it off, but Park has never been KO’d. In a fight I expect to hit the scorecards, Park should have the bigger moments. Jun Yong Park by Decision
  • GB: Gregory Rodrigues by Decision

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Nick Negumereanu -240 (DK $9100, FD $19) vs Ike Villanueva +190 (DK $7100, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Opening the main card is this light heavyweight bout between Ike Villanueva and Nick Negumereanu. Hurricane Ike has been a veteran of the game for quite a while now but unfortunately got his UFC call a little too late. He is 37 years old and simply not skillful or durable enough to last long in the promotion. He has good boxing with very heavy hands but is otherwise flat footed and rather slow. All eight of his previous fights have ended inside of two rounds, clearly showing both his power and vulnerability. Negumereanu is the much more well-rounded mixed martial artist. He has the better frame for light heavyweight and fights with excellent forward pressure. Grappling is a clear path to victory for him here as Villanueva has poor takedown defense and virtually no skills on the mat. Negumereanu is more than capable of beating Villanueva striking, but as a bettor I would rather he go the safe route and hunt for a submission here. This fight should be decided in under ten minutes and I think Negumereanu is going to get his hand raised. Nick Negumereanu by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Nick Negumereanu is coming off a solid win over Aleksa Camur where he showed a well-rounded game. He finds most of his success keeping pressure on his opponents. He has an excellent chin, a decent jab and underrated wrestling. Ike Villanueva is a striker. He’s a fairly technical boxer offensively with sneaky KO power. However, he doesn’t really move his head and there are questions surrounding his durability as six of his twelve professional losses have come via KO. Negumereanu is going to need to be careful not to get in a fire fight with Villanueva here, but as long as he covers his chin – he should outclass him considerably. I expect Negumereanu to mix in his grappling on his way to his second consecutive win in this spot. Villanueva is live for an early KO, but outside of that this is the favorite’s fight to win or lose. Nick Negumeranu by Round Two KO
  • GB: Nick Negumereanu by Round Two KO

Francisco Trinaldo -140 (DK $8400, FD $16) vs Dwight Grant +115 (DK $7800, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Next is a welterweight fight between Francisco Trinaldo and Dwight Grant. These are two very skilled fighters that are just a bit up there in age. Massaranduba is a living legend who still puts on competitive fights at this stage of his career. He looks durable and as strong as ever up at 170 pounds but clearly is not as fast or technically sounds as he once was. His southpaw style is tricky for opponents to find openings against, but a fighter like Grant that switches stances should be able to close the distance and score points in the stand up. Grant is not only more agile but also a stronger puncher than Trinaldo at this stage of their careers. He is a massive welterweight and I think it is a very favorable matchup for him as Trinaldo becomes less dangerous by the day. It is by no means an easy fight to pick but I like the value on Grant at the current odds. I do not see him finding a finish but the first half of this fight should be dominated by The Body Snatcher. Dwight Grant by Decision
  • Nick: Francisco Trinaldo is a seasoned vet that finds most of his success striking at range. He’s good everywhere, but there are undeniable concerns about his cardio and durability as he’s now 43 years old. He has managed to win three of his last four matchups, but there’s really no denying he’s moving into the downturn of his career. Dwight Grant recently left one of the better camps in the country in AKA. He is fairly well-rounded with accurate striking but he doesn’t really throw a ton of volume. He has knockout power, but if he doesn’t finish his fights early he sometimes struggles to maintain much of an attack. His cardio issues should be mostly negated here as Trinaldo’s gas tank is likely even worse. Both of these fighters carry KO power which suggests this is a good bout to target for DFS purposes. However, Trinaldo has never been KO’d before. Grant’s clearest path to victory here comes via knockout but I don’t expect Trinaldo’s chin to crumble just yet. This is another close pick, but I’m siding with Trinaldo. He has more paths to victory than the underdog. Francisco Trinaldo by Decision
  • GB: Dwight Grant by Decision

Seungwoo Choi -290 (DK $9200, FD $21) vs Alex Caceres +230 (DK $7000, FD $9)

  • Anthony: This should be a fun fight at featherweight between Seungwoo Choi and Alex Caceres. These are two fighters certainly trending upwards again after having some trouble finding wins. Caceres is a veteran at this point and things were looking bleak for him in the UFC just two years ago, but since then he has rattled off four consecutive wins. Those victories were not over the most impressive of competition, but it is nice to see him developing his grappling skills and using strikes more effectively. He is now well-rounded enough to pose a threat to Choi wherever this fight takes place. The reason these odds are so wide is because of the distinct striking advantage of Choi. I believe that Choi is adding to his game quickly and just now entering his fighting prime. He should be able to keep this fight standing and go to work with the hands against Caceres. He has a distinct power advantage even if Caceres ends up landing the higher volume of strikes. I think Choi makes it four in a row for himself here. Seungwoo Choi by Decision
  • Nick: Choi is a highly regarded prospect coming out of South Korea. He’s proven to be well-rounded, coming off impressive wins over decent competition in both Youssef Zalal and Julian Erosa. He’s most comfortable on the feet, but he’s shown formidable enough grappling to stay out of danger against a wide range of opponents. Caceres is a highly technical striker that does an excellent job managing distance. He doesn’t carry much power, but he does a good job landing from unconventional angles. Caceres pushes a serious pace and generally does a good job keeping his opponents on their heels. Caceres should have an offensive grappling advantage here, but Choi likely has the stronger hips. I expect this fight to stay standing and Choi to ultimately land the more damaging shots. This matchup has Fight of the Night potential and the line has gotten far too wide, but I’m siding with the favorite here. Seungwoo Choi by Decision
  • GB: Seungwoo Choi by Round Two KO

Jessica-Rose Clark -170 (DK $8500, FD $17) vs Joselyne Edwards +140 (DK $7700, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The featured bout will be a women’s bantamweight clash between Joselyne Edwards and Jessica-Rosa Clark. A lot of people are high on the 10-6 Clark, but I simply do not buy into the hype. Her two most impressive wins have come over Sarah Alpar and Paige VanZant. Her best attribute is the high pace at which she fights, implementing wrestling as well as a basic orthodox attack on the feet. She throws a high volume of strikes, but I see Clark playing from behind here while this fight is standing. Edwards has displayed amazing kickboxing thus far through two UFC bouts. She trains out of an excellent gym in Kings MMA and Clark is a step down in competition from her last opponent, Karol Rosa. If she can keep this fight at range and hurt Clark on the way in, I see the underdog cashing here by late stoppage or a decision victory. Even if she does get taken down, I like the urgency Edwards has displayed when it comes to fighting back to her feet. Joselyne Edwards by Decision
  • Nick: Jessica-Rose Clark is a strong and versatile striker. She’s far more experienced than Edwards, carrying a 3-2 record since she entered the UFC. She’s been working on her grappling of late, training under Daniel Cormier out of an excellent camp in AKA. Joselyne Edwards is a Muay Thai style striker who finds most of her success striking both at range and in the clinch. Edwards is coming off a hard-fought decision loss to Karol Rosa. She looked excellent in her debut against Yanan Wu, so it’s tough to get a true read on her as she’s been extremely inconsistent. When she’s at her best, Edwards is certainly capable of giving Clark problems on the feet. However, I expect Clark to lean into a wrestling heavy game plan here as she neutralizes the offense of her opponent. If Edwards can keep this standing she’ll be live for the upset. However, I expect Clark to show improvements in her wrestling on a way to a win. Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision
  • GB: Jessica-Rose Clark by Round Three KO

Grant Dawson -550 (DK $9300, FD $22) vs Ricky Glenn +380 (DK $6900, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Our co-main event is a scrap at lightweight with Grant Dawson taking on Ricy Glenn. The odds have gotten a bit out of hand for this matchup but Dawson is the clear favorite. He has won eight consecutive bouts with none more impressive than his last win against Leonardo Santos. We saw Dawson at a size disadvantage in that bout and he struggled to find his footing early. Things were looking bleak, but just as time was about to expire a barrage of hammerfists knocked out Santos and secured Dawson a last second win. He is coached by James Krause and looks like an entirely different fighter now up here at 155 pounds. Glenn has always been a dangerous fighter but he is quite clearly the longer in the tooth of these two. I do not think it is coincidence that the one loss Dawson gets a matchup like this today, arguably easier than the last contract he had signed. He can hang with Glenn on the feet but I expect a wrestling heavy approach to secure him the victory here. Glenn has not shown much at all in terms of grappling skills from bottom position. Dawson should face little resistance in extending his win streak to nine. Grant Dawson by Decision
  • Nick: Ricky Glenn has underrated power in his strikes, he is coming off an impressive KO win as an underdog against Joaquim Silva. His greatest advantage seems to be his uncharacteristic length at lightweight. Dawson is coming off an impressive comeback win over Leonardo Santos in which he managed to weaponize his cardio. He was likely behind on the scorecards but he was extremely aggressive the third round and ultimately finished Santos via KO. Dawson typically fights with a pressure wrestling boxing style, which could prove troublesome for Glenn. In many of Glenn’s previous fights we’ve seen him struggle to get off of his back if he’s grounded. When this fight is standing, it will be very evenly matched. Glenn has a power advantage here so the line does feel like it’s a bit too wide. That being said, Dawson is the pick. I expect he finds the takedowns he needs to score a win. All of Dawson’s fights have scored well for DFS, so he’s likely worth his very high price tag regardless of whether or not he can get a finish. Grant Dawson by Decision
  • GB: Grant Dawson by Decision

Marvin Vettori -200 (DK $8600, FD $22) vs Paulo Costa +160 (DK $7600, FD $15)

  • Anthony: The matchup everyone has been talking about is this fight, now at light heavyweight, between Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori. Early this week news from the Costa camp broke that he was overweight and unable to make the contracted middleweight limit. Vettori agreed to fight at a catchweight of 195 pounds, and ultimately let Costa move the contest to the 205-pound limit instead. On paper this is a matchup between a dynamic striker in Costa and a durable, more well-rounded Vettori. There is a lot to like technically about either side, but this weight change really makes predicting things more volatile. Costa has been causing problems for the company since his loss to Israel Adesanya a year ago. There are numerous reasons he may be pulling a stunt like this. He could be injured, simply too heavy, unmotivated, or looking for a way to get cut from the promotion. It also could’ve been planned so he outweighs Vettori by 25 pounds tonight and stuffs every takedown attempt. At middleweight I would’ve predicted that either Vettori wrestles his way to a decision victory or Costa gets an early win on the feet. Now I could see literally anything happening in this bout. I’ll be siding with the superior striker at an unfair weight advantage here. After all the shenanigans this week I think backing the underdog is the only risk worth taking. Costa should have better cardio than usual and be the much bigger man inside the cage. Paulo Costa by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Marvin Vettori has found a lot of success since he’s been training at Kings MMA under Rafael Cordero. He’s still only 27 years old and seems to get better every time we see him fight. He fell his last time out to champion Israel Adesanya, but he lasted all five rounds against and didn’t take an excessive amount of damage. Vettori is a southpaw who throws a strong knee and kick from his left side. He has yet to really show knockout power, but he does throw damaging strikes and his accuracy is above average. He is a well-rounded grappler with a strong wrestling base and decent ground and pound ability. Paulo Costa is a volume striker with plenty of power for a middleweight. He’s extremely aggressive and can absolutely eat a punch, as we saw in his victory against Yoel Romero. He was completely decimated in his title fight with Israel Adesanya. He struggled to make weight for this bout and it’s tough to know if he is still truly dedicated to the sport. This fight was originally scheduled to take place at 185 lbs, but Costa could only cut to the light heavyweight limit. Vettori accepted the change in weight but I feel it’s more likely Costa is injured than being strategic. Costa is going to be dangerous here, but as long as Vettori weathers that early storm I expect him to take over. Vettori’s clearest path to potential victory would be to take Costa down and control position. He may not be able to find a takedown in the first round, but I expect he’ll have a considerable cardio advantage here. I expect Costa to exert a lot of energy looking for an early finish and start to fade soon thereafter. Vettori should be able to hang on the feet for long enough to take this fight wherever he needs to. Marvin Vettori by Round Two KO
  • GB: Marvin Vettori by Decision

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