UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier Predictions (Reposted)

We have an excellent pay-per-view card tonight to close out a massive year of UFC action! This card is stacked from top to bottom and headlined by excellent title bouts in the women’s bantamweight and men’s lightweight divisions.

The write-up here will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It details my betting strategy for each fight and a prediction of what kind of bout we see.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

Lastly, if you are in search of even more DFS content be sure to visit DailyPlayAction.com! This site is dedicated to providing expert daily fantasy coaching as well as tools to optimize your NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL and PGA lineups. Check them out now if you play any FanDuel or DraftKings DFS.

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 10:00 AM EST 12-11-2021

Early Prelims- Start 6:00pm EST

Gillian Robertson -400 (DK $9300, FD $22) vs Priscilla Cachoeira +285 (DK $6900, FD $8)

• Anthony: Tonight’s action opens with a flyweight bout between Priscilla Cachoeira and Gillian Robertson. The only fighter to miss weight yesterday was Cachoeira who came in three pounds overweight. Regardless of what you expect to see in this bout, I think everybody can agree the odds are far too wide. Robertson has lost three of her last four bouts in the UFC. She is certainly the better grappler and technical striker than Cachoeira, but Robertson lacks the ability to end fights on the feet. Robertson is not a very dangerous fighter and I do not expect her to find the finish here if she were to get the win. I think the clear pick is Cachoeira who has already cashed in as a large underdog in her past two fights. She has the ability to string together much stronger combinations than Robertson. Not to mention the weight discrepancy will certainly add to her physical advantages here. I see her power shining through once again as she shocks a lot of people to open up this card. Priscilla Cachoeira by Round Two KO
• Nick: Gillian Robertson is looking to bounce back after back-to-back tough losses to Miranda Maverick and Taila Santos. She’s in good hands here as she’s being coached by a guru in Din Thomas. Robertson is known for her outstanding grappling ability. She’s one of the more impressive young grapplers in this division and her BJJ is much more dangerous than any of Cachoeira’s recent opponents Cachoeira is coming off back-to-back impressive knockout wins over Gina Mazany and Shana Dobson. The key to this matchup for Cachoeira will be to land enough volume to push the pace and keep Robertson working off her back foot. If this fight is grounded, she’s certainly going to be in trouble here. However, on the feet she’s likely to have a considerable advantage. The line is far too wide here and I really don’t have much confidence in either fighter. However, as long as Robertson doesn’t get caught early this feels like her fight to lose. The UFC sees her as a name they’d like to build and Cahoeira’s lack of grappling ability should position her well to get back in the win column. Gillian Robertson by Round One Submission
• GB: Gillian Robertson by Round One Submission

Randy Costa -185 (DK $9000, FD $20) vs Tony Kelley +150 (DK $7200, FD $11)

• Anthony: Next up is a fight at bantamweight between Randy Costa and Tony Kelley. I think we see Costa once again display his phenomenal striking in this bout. While his overall resume is still rather thin, Costa has looked dominant in victory and only suffered losses to the ultra-tough Adrian Yanez and Brandon Davis. Costa had Yanez badly hurt in the first round of their matchup this summer but slowed down significantly and got finished in the second round. I think Yanez is a lot more durable than the 34-year-old Kelley and by implementing a similar gameplan here, Costa should win with ease. He throws excellent kicks that really hurt opponents and the wide arsenal of attacks will likely overwhelm Kelley here. Kelley has just one fight more than Costa but is seven years his senior. I see him getting picked apart by a volume striker like this. Randy Costa by Round Two KO
• Nick: This should be a fun one for as long as it lasts. We have two powerful strikers here, and both of these guys like to stand and swing. All six of Randy Costa’s wins have come via knockout in the first round. He’s an extremely quick and powerful striker with explosive kicks and combinations. As impressive as he’s been, we really haven’t seen him have much success after the first round. In his last fight, a loss to Adrian Yanez, he dominated early but tired out heading into the second. He’ll need to learn to pace himself early if he’s going to find success at this level. Kelley is primarily a striker who finds a lot of success fighting out of an open karate stance. He has a very high Fight IQ, does a good job managing his gas tank and it seems more likely than not that he’s going to have a grappling advantage in this spot. If he can weather an early storm from Costa, he’ll be very live for an upset here. However, I feel Costa’s power and speed is likely a bit too much for him. As inexperienced as he is, we’ve seen Costa against a higher level of competition than we have seen face Tony Kelley. Kelley is one of the more appealing underdogs in terms of DFS, but I’m siding with the favorite. Randy Costa by Round Two KO
• GB: Randy Costa by Round Two KO

Ryan Hall -200 (DK $8900, FD $20) vs Darrick Minner +160 (DK $7300, FD $10)

• Anthony: This should be a fun matchup at featherweight between Ryan Hall and Darrick Minner. Hall suffered his second career loss this past July as he was put to sleep by the strikes of Ilia Topuria. Tonight he faces an opponent even more experienced and gritty, but far less gifted in the striking department. Minner is primarily a grappler and thus I expect to see this matchup largely contested on the mat. Hall would be clear favorite in a combat jiu jitsu match against just about anyone. An opponent entering his realm of fighting seems ill advised but Minner has sounded confident in his own grappling skills. I think things get very ugly for Minner here if he does not try to keep the fight standing. Hall of course has numerous submissions available from the 50/50 position, but also a variety of other chokes too. Minner needs to be careful of threats to his neck and arms and not just the leg locks Hall often implements. Hall has the ability to lock something up from any close-range position and I think Minner gets caught by early here. Ryan Hall by Round One Submission
• Nick: Hall’s style is extremely awkward, but also extremely effective. He has a truly outstanding BJJ game and when he’s on the feet he throws a wide range of kicks to keep his opponents at range. He dives and rolls at his opponents’ feet constantly in an attempt to engage in grappling exchanges. As talented as he is on the mat, his striking is certainly more of a weakness than a strength. Minner is primarily a grappler. He’s decent on the feet, but he’s far more comfortable pursuing takedowns and working for submissions on the mat. He’s coming off a hard-fought loss to Darren Elkins. However, coming into that fight he was undefeated since he made the move to Glory MMA. He’s been much more reserved under coach James Krause and he’s shown improvements in all facets of his game. Hall has trouble against powerful strikers, but Minner doesn’t fall into that category. This should be a strange fight aesthetically, but I expect Hall to ground Minner and work him for a submission. Eight of Minner’s twelve professional losses have come via submission. Ryan Hall by Round One Submission
• GB: Ryan Hall by Round Two Submission

Miranda Maverick -140 (DK $8400, FD $17) vs Erin Blanchfield +115 (DK $7800, FD $14)

• Anthony: Next we have a women’s flyweight bout between Erin Blanchfield and Miranda Maverick. This is a very difficult bout to pick as both women are exciting prospects that have looked excellent as of late. Maverick is coming off her first loss since early 2019. She is a very powerful striker in this division and it is complemented by her developing approach wrestling too. Blanchfield is the taller fighter who likely finds more success at range here, but Maverick does not typically make her fights the most aesthetically pleasing. I think the forward pressure of Maverick results in her getting the best of most exchanges here. She is the more experienced fighter and seems to have the higher ceiling of the two in the future. Miranda Maverick by Decision
• Nick: Maverick is coming off a controversial loss to Maycee Barber, but she’s a name that’s been building some hype for a while. She’s mostly known for her extremely high-fight IQ and very well-rounded overall game. She’s big for this division, with very powerful hips and more than enough grappling ability to avoid most compromising positions. Maverick continues to show improvement in her striking, but she’s still clearly developing that aspect of her game. This is just Blanchfield’s second fight in the UFC, but she’s already found a lot of success against a high level of competition. In addition to her debut win over Sara Alpar, she has notable wins over UFC vets like Kay Hansen and Victoria Leonardo. Her one loss came to another UFC vet in Tracey Cortes, a fight in which many felt she should have been awarded the decision. These are two of the more interesting prospects in this division and they both have high ceilings in terms of their respective career trajectories. That being said, we’ve seen more from Maverick. While both fighters have been tested, she’s been tested more extensively. I expect she’ll be a bit better than Blanchfield everywhere here. Another tough one. Miranda Maverick by Decision
• GB: Miranda Maverick by Decision

Andre Muniz -170 (DK $8500, FD $18) vs Eryk Anders +140 (DK $7700, FD $13)

• Anthony: The early prelims conclude when Andre Muniz takes on Eryk Anders at middleweight. Anders is taking this fight on rather short notice and replacing Muniz’ original opponent Dricus Du Plessis. It has been a mixed bag for Anders in the UFC but he continues to show improvements fight after fight. He still prefers to stay standing and land powerful strikes from the southpaw stance as his standard Plan A. While Anders is athletically gifted, I do not think he is skilled enough to survive long against competition like Muniz. The Brazilian has won seven consecutive fights, most recently breaking the arm of Jacare Souza on the same night Charles Oliveira became champion. The 3rd degree BJJ black belt should have no problems finishing Anders if able to close the distance early on. Anders takes pride in his grappling and has certainly rounded out his overall game, but I do not see this being a tough fight for the far more refined martial artist in Muniz. Andre Muniz by Round One Submission
• Nick: Fourteen of Muniz’ twenty-one professional victories have come by way of submission. He hasn’t lost since 2016, and after a massive win over Jacare Souza his last time out many consider him to be one of the most dangerous grapplers there is at 185 pounds. Eryk Anders recently switched camp to Fight Ready, which represents a major upgrade over his time spent training in his home state of Alabama. He’s a dangerous striker with decent ability everywhere, but outside of his general power and athleticism he doesn’t seem to have any standout skill. When this fight is standing, I expect Anders to have a considerable advantage. However, I do see Muniz eventually dragging this fight to where he needs to. Anders is a decent underdog play for DFS as his most likely path to victory is via KO. Ultimately, I see Muniz’s relentless grappling as being the deciding factor in this one. Andre Muniz by Round One Submission
• GB: Eryk Anders by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Bruno Silva -350 (DK $9400, FD $22) vs Jordan Wright +260 (DK $6800, FD $8)

• Anthony: It should be a quick fight to open the preliminary card as Bruno Silva fights Jordan Wright at middleweight. All of Wright’s career bouts have ended inside the distance while Silva has seen a stoppage in seven consecutive bouts. Silva is a big and powerful striker that is shredded for this weight class. He has been disposing of opponents with ease given his elite precision on the feet. The main hole is Silva’s game has been his defensive grappling but I highly doubt we see him defend many shots today. Wright is an all-action fighter and he is going to get into a war with Silva right away. The best part of Wright’s game is his work in the clinch with knees and elbows. He is very explosive for middleweight and moves elusively on the feet. However, Wright does also have a suspect chin that is likely the cause for an inflated line like this. I think that both fighters have the ability to turn the other’s lights out. Wright will have to close the distance to either find the finish striking or grappling, but I certainly believe him to be more live than these odds show. He is slightly bigger and in a fight with these two monsters throwing hands, it would not surprise me to see Wright land first. Jordan Wright by Round One KO
• Nick: Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with eighteen of his twenty-one professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges. Wright is powerful and athletic, but he seems to fold when he’s met with adversity. He’s a rangy striker with true knockout power but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired as he’s more than willing to eat shots to throw them. Wright is live for the KO upset here, but his defensive ability and chin seem to be far less advanced compared to Silva. He is a decent GPP dart if you’re playing multiple DFS lineups, but Silva is the rightful favorite here. Wright should come out strong, but I expect he leaves his chin in the air and Silva to capitalize. Bruno Silva by Round One KO
• GB: Bruno Silva by Round One KO

Tai Tuivasa -120 (DK $8300, FD $16) vs Augusto Sakai +100 (DK $7900, FD $15)

• Anthony: The night’s heavyweight action begins and ends here as Augusto Sakai will scrap with Tai Tuivasa. This should be a striking battle but Tuivasa is far more power oriented while Sakai relies on his volume. It has been easy for me to fade Sakai in his previous two matchups, but the fight here is a lot harder to call. He has been a slower, grinding heavyweight that we are kind of accustomed to seeing in this division. He may not be the most technically sound but Sakai does land solid combinations and give his opponents a lot of looks to digest. Tuivasa is more of a brawler and enters here with three straight first round knockouts under his belt. He is a fan favorite for his fun style and post-fight antics although he is not the most technically sound. Tuivasa is very tough and has enough power to put out anyone in this division. Sakai is an opponent that will be reluctant to trade with him, but the faster Tuivasa should dictate pace and land some cracking shots. As the odds show, this is an incredibly tough fight to call. I will side with Tuivasa as he is more likely to score the finish and has a much higher ceiling in DFS lineups. Tai Tuivasa by Round One KO
• Nick: Tai Tuivasa has decent takedown defense, speed, and like many other heavyweights serious knockout power. His clearest path to victory is always via the knockout punch but if he doesn’t find it he lacks the skills to grind out fights on the scorecards. He is coming off the biggest win of his career, a knockout victory over Greg Hardy. He’ll look to build on that momentum in this spot in one of the toughest fights of his career against Augusto Sakai. Sakai isn’t nearly as powerful as Tuivasa, but he throws a lot more volume and he’s far more aggressive. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents, and up against the cage he’s likely to have an advantage in terms of positional grappling ability over his opponent. Sakai had been gradually climbing the UFC ranks before he fell in his last two fights against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alistair Overeem. He’s seen a much higher level of competition in comparison to Tuivasa. I’ve gone back and forth on this fight and could absolutely see it going either way. I like Tuivasa a lot, but I expect Sakai’s skill advantage to shine through here. Augusto Sakai by Decision
• GB: Tai Tuivasa by Round One KO

Pedro Munhoz -120 (DK $8100, FD $16) vs Dominick Cruz +100 (DK $8100, FD $15)

• Anthony: Next up is a matchup at bantamweight between Dominick Cruz and Pedro Munhoz. This fight is essentially going to be a battle of power and precision. Munhoz is the far more explosive fighter. He has legitimate knockout power in this weight class. He also has a devastating guillotine choke that he has won fights with in the past. However, Cruz is the far more technical fighter both on the feet and in wrestling exchanges. I really enjoy watching Cruz fight and would normally pick him for that alone, but this is a great opponent for him. Cruz always hits guys when they are out of position and a power puncher like Munhoz will likely be throwing from the hip often. The elite footwork and movement of Cruz will frustrate Munhoz who likely can only win by landing a clean shot. Cruz may wrestle in this fight a bit in order to negate the power coming at him, but if he elects to do so I imagine we see safe takedown entries set up with the hands. Neither one of these guys have crazy DFS ceiling so I probably will be limiting ownership on both, despite their appealing price tags. Dominick Cruz by Decision
• Nick: Cruz is known for his incredibly high Fight IQ. He has some of the best footwork we have ever seen in the UFC. He does an excellent job switching stances to keep his opponents on their heels and as a former champion he is in the conversation as one of the best bantamweights in UFC history. Cruz is coming off a solid win over a rising prospect in Casey Kenney. Munhoz is going to have the advantage in volume when this fight is standing, but he has a negative striking differential which could prove costly against a technical boxer like Cruz. Munhoz’s best weapon has certainly been his leg kicks of late, but to me that’s the only real path he has to pull this off. He’s the more likely of these two to find a finish, but Cruz’s footwork and movement in the big cage is unlike anything Munhoz has seen before. Another close matchup that I could see going either way, but Cruz is the pick. Dominick Cruz by Decision
• GB: Dominick Cruz by Decision

Josh Emmett -150 (DK $8800, FD $19) vs Dan Ige +125 (DK $7400, FD $11)

• Anthony: The prelims close with fireworks in the featherweight division as Dan Ige takes on Josh Emmett. I have faded Dan Ige quite a bit lately but it is time to give him his respect. He really is a complete fighter who has excellent wrestling and grappling. He most recently lost to The Korean Zombie, but the prior win was a knockout of Gavin Tucker in the first exchange they threw. Seeing him display power like that followed by a five-round performance against the Zombie makes me think of Ige a lot more highly than I did. Emmett is still my pick to win this fight though as he is the far more dangerous featherweight. Emmett has dynamite in his hands and should dish out a lot of damage on Ige while this fight is standing. He lands more knockdowns than knockouts, but is certainly live for the finish here in what should be a great fight to sell the main card. While each should have their moments in this bout I see Emmett ultimately getting his hand raised. Josh Emmett by Decision
• Nick: Ige has an extremely high Fight IQ. He works well behind his jab on the feet, but it seems he’s most comfortable grappling and wrestling as he has a very powerful base and excellent control of his hips. Ige’s relentless and aggressive wrestling style should give him a slight edge on the mat here. However, Emmett is an extremely underrated grappler in his own right. Josh Emmett is mostly known for his tremendous KO power. He hasn’t fought in over a year as he’s been recovering from a torn ACL, but he remains an interesting and potential contender at 145. This should be an excellent fight and it’s certainly one of the more difficult on the card to call. However, I prefer the value on the underdog here. I see Ige as durable enough to hang with Emmett in the pocket. He’s a bit more well-rounded, more active, and he’s been facing the higher level of competition. Dan Ige by Decision
• GB: Josh Emmett by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Sean O’Malley -335 (DK $9100, FD $20) vs Raulian Paiva +255 (DK $7100, FD $9)

• Anthony: The main card opens with Raulian Paiva taking on one of the most exciting fighters in the promotion, Sean O’Malley. We have seen nothing but stellar performances from O’Malley who has proven already that he is not just the product of hype. At bantamweight, nobody has faster and more precise striking paired with such a long and powerful frame. His feints and footwork are elite and we have seen him dish out incredible volume over the course of his UFC tenure. Paiva is a scrappy opponent that certainly deserves respect, but this fight is not an easy one for him. The former flyweight contender is significantly undersized and I do not think he offers much in terms of grappling against somebody built like O’Malley. Paiva has been training his wrestling in preparation for this bout but has mostly been known as a striker in the past. O’Malley is going to get going too early in this fight for Paiva to recover. I expect we see him scoring at least one early knockdown and overwhelming his opponent with the speed and power we are accustomed to. This is likely the fight that vaults The Suga Show into the rankings. He is probably the best value play on both DraftKings and FanDuel when it comes to the high-priced fighters available. Sean O’Malley by Round One KO
• Nick: Sean O’Malley has a ridiculous amount of hype behind him right now. He has been winning convincingly with highlight reel knockouts, but most of them have come against mediocre competition. He has excellent striking ability and does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. Paiva is a technical striker in his own right. He has solid footwork and puts out decent volume, but he’s had issues against ranked opponents in the past. He’s coming off an impressive upset win over Kyler Phillips as a +225 underdog. However, many feel he should still be fighting back down at 125 pounds. Paiva is tough and he’s going to be one of the more difficult tests O’Malley has seen to date. However, he’s fairly hittable when you watch him on film and he doesn’t really have the type of wrestling ability that it would take to ground O’Malley consistently and neutralize his striking. The line isn’t great and he’s a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but he’s an excellent play on DraftKings at $9100. As is almost always the case with O’Malley, the upset wouldn’t shock me. However, this is his fight to lose. I expect he adds to his highlight reel here. Sean O’Malley by Round One KO
• GB: Sean O’Malley by Round One KO

Cody Garbrandt -130 (DK $8700, FD $17) vs Kai Kara-France +110 (DK $7500, FD $12)

• Anthony: Next is a bout at flyweight between Kai Kara-France and former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt. These are two small guys that still pack a lot of power. Kara-France had a massive knockout his last time out, overcoming adversity and stopping Rogerio Bonterin. He is a high-power kickboxer that certainly has what it takes to stop someone like Cody. We have seen Garbrandt finished in three of his last four losses. As with plenty of other fighters, the 11-0 start to the career so quickly turns sour. Garbrandt’s move to flyweight seems like a desperate move to return to relevancy in the promotion. He was never a particularly big bantamweight and it is obviously going to be a more strenuous cut at this age. Kara-France is clearly built to be a flyweight and I think his power actually matches that of Cody. He should get comfortable with the speed and range of Cody as time goes on. I see Kara-France taking over in the latter half of this one and ultimately getting his hand raised. Kai Kara-France by Decision
• Nick: Kai Kara-France out of City Kickboxing is the higher volume striker in this one. He has a powerful overhand right and does a good job making sure that the strikes he throws are meaningful. The one real knock on him is that he doesn’t put his opponents away. He tends to find himself in tough positions as he takes his foot off the gas at inopportune times. Garbrandt has the more proven KO power, and he also diversifies his strikes better as he mixes in kicks frequently and effectively. I expect both guys to be content to stand and trade here, making this a Fight of the Night candidate. There are reasons to like both of these guys and I wouldn’t be shocked if France pulled off the upset – especially considering the question marks we have surrounding Garbrandt’s chin cutting weight down to flyweight. That being said, I’m backing Garbrandt. He’s had more success against this top-level competition and as long as his chin holds up here this feels like his fight to lose. He’s the more dangerous puncher with better head movement and footwork. I expect him to utilize leg kicks frequently and ultimately find an opening for a knockout before this fight is over. Cody Garbrandt by Round Two KO
• GB: Cody Garbrant by Round Two KO

Santiago Ponzinibbio -115 (DK $8200, FD $16) vs Geoff Neal -105 (DK $8000, FD $14)

• Anthony: The featured bout is a matchup at welterweight between Geoff Neal and Santiago Ponzinibbio. I think this is a very interesting matchup stylistically as the kickboxer Neal takes on a well-rounded striker like Ponzinibbio. Both have solid knockout wins to their credit and either one can take a big step up the welterweight ladder here today. Ponzinibbio was on the cusp of a title eliminator not long ago, but injuries and a knockout loss in his return certainly lowered his stock. I still believe him to be the more powerful striker than Neal although the kicking game is certainly less developed. On paper it seems like a good matchup for Neal if he fights at range, but I question his motivation in general ahead of this fight. Neal has lost two straight and was detained in the early morning of Thanksgiving for driving while intoxicated. I feel like Ponzinibbio is just a bit easier to trust in this spot. Santiago Ponzinibbio by Decision
• Nick: These guys are both extremely aggressive strikers and they’ve both shown an ability to carry power and still throw hard late in fights. Ponzinibbio was the class of this division before he was forced to miss more than two years with an extensive list of injuries. He’s coming off an impressive win over a highly regarded prospect in Miguel Baeza. He was struggling early in that matchup, but he seemed to find a second gear and took over convincingly as that fight wore on. Geoff Neal is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time of his career. He fell to Stephen Thompson his last time out, but Thompson is widely considered one of the more difficult opponents for strikers in the history of the sport. This one could go either way and I’ll have shares of each fighter on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, as talented as Ponzinibbio is he is also very hittable. Against a power puncher like Neal, I expect that spells trouble for him in this spot. I’ll have shares of both for DFS, but I prefer the value on the dog in this one. Tough fight to call but I think Neal gets it done. Geoff Neal by Round Two KO
• GB: Santiago Ponzinibbio by Decision

Amanda Nunes -950 (DK $9500, FD $23) vs Juliana Pena +575 (DK $6500, FD $12)

• Anthony: The first of two title fights will be a women’s bantamweight bout as Amanda Nunes looks to defend her belt against Juliana Pena. This feels like once again the coronation of Amanda Nunes as the greatest female fighter of all time. The Lioness has an opportunity to extend her winning streak to thirteen here as she moves back down to 135 pounds to defend this belt. She faces Juliana Pena who is certainly a game fighter, but not necessarily championship material. Pena is dangerous on the feet and slick on the mat, yet she has gone just 2-2 in her previous four matchups. Nunes is an absolute killer that disposed of her last opponent in just over two minutes. She is better than Pena everywhere and I expect this to be another easy fight for the champion. While Nunes can get it done anywhere, her hands have been the best weapon in this weight class. These women just cannot stand up against her incredible natural power. And Still. Amanda Nunes by Round One KO
• Nick: Pena is tough, but Nunes is truly the greatest of all time when the conversation is women’s mixed martial arts. Nunes is stronger and she has the much more advanced and dangerous striking. Pena is a talented BJJ practitioner but Nunes is a much better wrestler with the better weight control and overall strength. Nunes has monstrous kicks, which I expect to be enough in dulling the pressure from Pena here if she even tries to apply it to take her down. The line is a bit ridiculous, but Nunes should cruise here. No matter where this one goes I expect Nunes to dominate. She’s my favorite DFS pay-up on both DraftKings and FanDuel. And Still. Amanda Nunes by Round One Submission
• GB: Amanda Nunes by Round Two KO

Dustin Poirier -140 (DK $8600, FD $21) vs Charles Oliveira +115 (DK $7600, FD $16)

• Anthony: The main event will decide the lightweight champion of the world as Charles Oliveira looks to defend his belt against Dustin Poirier. The only loss for Poirier in his previous ten bouts came against undisputed champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. He could’ve had another crack at gold sooner, but instead elected to take two big money fights against Conor McGregor. He is undeniable one of the best fighters in the world, but Oliveira provides a difficult stylistic matchup for Poirier. The champion is a third degree BJJ black belt with 14 UFC wins by submission, the most in promotional history. Not only does he work quickly and efficiently on the mat but Oliveira also has knockout power. He finished Michael Chandler with a left hook to secure the lightweight strap in May. Oliveira is not accustomed to the championship rounds and so it is crucial for him to dispose of Poirier early if he wants to win. I feel like the current champion is being disrespected by the current odds. The past three wins for Oliveira were far more impressive than those of Poirier. I see Oliveira pressuring early and bringing Poirier to the mat to test his grappling acumen. He should get the job done here in what is clearly his toughest test to date. And Still. Charles Oliveira by Round Two Submission
• Nick: We have an outstanding main event here, closing out the PPV schedule for 2021. Charles Oliveira comes into this fight as the underdog but he’s the current champion having captured the vacant title via KO in the second round against Michael Chandler. Oliveira was almost finished early in that fight, but he showed improved resilience and durability as he ultimately recovered and put Chandler away. Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ, and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. Poirier has as much momentum as he’s ever had in his career. He’s coming off back-to-back KO wins over Conor McGregor. He hasn’t lost a fight since he fell to Khabib in 2019, and many feel he’d already be the champion at 155 if he didn’t give McGregor a rematch back in July. We have seen Poirier time and time again start to come alive as the fight wears into the middle and later rounds. He’s always live for an early finish, but he’s also proven he can take over as fights wear on. He’s going to have a significant striking advantage in this matchup. His durability has been excellent at 155 and if he can keep this fight standing I expect him to pull away. I will have shares of Oliveira here because there’s no denying that this is a close fight on paper. He’s very dangerous on the ground and if he can take the fight there a finish feels fairly likely. However, Poirier has been in similar spots before. I like that he does enough defensively in terms of grappling to likely neutralize Oliveira’s BJJ, and I expect him to find the Brazilian’s chin before this one is over. He has the more well-rounded game with more paths to victory. He’s the better striker with a strong enough wrestling base to keep this fight on the feet. And new. Dustin Poirier by Round Three KO
• GB: Dustin Poirier by Round Four KO